This alert expired on 4 July 2026 at 22:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 4th strongest of the 46 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 18 May 2026. The last comparable one was on 18 June 2026.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 4 at 5:45PM EDT until July 4 at 6:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 42,354 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 18 May 2026
- May 18, 2026 · score 22 · 7.0 km
- July 4, 2026 · score 34 · 10.9 km
- August 28, 2026 · score 34 · 18.9 km
How we know
Confirmed by 6 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100, at 87 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 87% |
| Coordinates | 39.0311, -78.6888 |
| Nearest City | Front Royal (45 km) |
| Population Exposed | 42.4K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-04T21:45:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5773bf30a487cfcf35a96548e6343f5a |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Frederick, MD; Washington, MD; Frederick, VA; Loudoun, VA; Berkeley, WV; Jefferson, WV; Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; King George, VA; Orange, VA; Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA; Fayette, PA; Indiana, PA; Westmoreland, PA and 12 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 4 at 5:45PM EDT until July 4 at 6:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-07-04T18:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 16 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5773bf30a487cfcf35a96548e6343f5a7f547d77.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d9a496ee0cc15e093751d3815c2a1d604c75939c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.cfbbb37b4126baecf1eb2dfd1cee647ae46c1033.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1fde092403c28f887d08e36ac42a7cc31b47ec8c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.63b79cb85188d4dbb210ce668777f15d6bb47029.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5e4c66af247bd98fe1f17e932a39cb6ab3485f8d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8593d459e14875cac6d3f3e17a6b0616e8ad346b.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.706bd666ba72c33cb936b667785fbc1358cb0897.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e6a11b829cf85a07bf87545083ff5d04a1787439.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5854bd430f1143138719038d219306a45df713df.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.23b23c08c9e60267924fc7bbfd63d9d7f3918ac7.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.243016d4135a4511facf3d8dc0da30fdf7669e4f.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6ac4de5bb462456e4cc38e73b516b2e7191031d0.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.36339053bef2b81b3005864276c0667df9415221.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7193925cbcc1e02c1d37dbe818f7c6e76e02acdc.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d80b6ca6cfa15a4548b17a774734009907babf39.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | Stanley |
| Iem County | Page |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | Large tree limbs fell onto power lines in the 200 block of Honeyville Avenue. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_39.100_-78.960_1783196640000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783196640000,"latitude":39.1,"longitude":-78.96},{"id":"iem_D_38.710_-79.340_1783192080000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783192080000,"latitude":38.71,"longitude":-79.34},{"id":"iem_D_38.570_-78.760_1783190700000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783190700000,"latitude":38.57,"longitude":-78.76},{"id":"iem_D_39.090_-79.060_1783196280000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783196280000,"latitude":39.09,"longitude":-79.06},{"id":"iem_D_38.570_-78.510_1783195800000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783195800000,"latitude":38.57,"longitude":-78.51}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 34/100 (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.